The Economic Silver Lining
Quick recap
Yesterday I discussed the financial results of the bailout. It may have been eye opening for you to see what little effect the first $350 billion dollars had on the seven largest banking institutions. The federal government has been swift to act, but will it work? Let’s recap some of the moves the fed has made to revive the economy:
1.Acquired Bear Stern’s toxic assets to facilitate JP Morgan takeover
2.Loaned billions to AIG to prevent its collapse
3.Purchased billions in commercial paper
4.Purchased billions of mortgage backed securities
5.Created the term auction facility (TAF) to provide liquidity to banks
6.Created the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF) to help promote loans to households and small businesses
7.Created the term securities lending facility to provide liquidity to investment banks
8.Created Primary Dealer Credit Facility to provide liquidity to investment banks
Source: Stewardship Partners
A Few Concerns
The most important item on the table was stabilizing the financial system. Though the TARP legislation had no positive effects on the financial performance of the banks it aided, it has actually succeeded thus far in halting a financial system collapse. Confidence has risen, but the stakes still remain very high. What are some of the current economic concerns?
1) If economic activity continues to fall at its current rapid pace, the recession in progress may become a depression.
2) Because people and businesses are reevaluating credit use, consumers and businesses may continue to seek to pay off old debts and curb spending and incurring new debt, which may further hinder an economy built on consumer debt and spending. In this instance, those looking to get out of debt are cautious about incurring new debt – no matter how low interest rates are.
3) Deficit problems may further plague the U.S. economy: President Obama with the help of the Democrat led Congress have committed to spend at such high levels that the US fiscal deficit will easily exceed 10% of GNP in fiscal 2009 and perhaps beyond.
4) Deflation could set in. This is where consumer prices keep falling. Sounds like a good thing, but it is not as demand falls along with prices creating further financial problems. Low demand is always a problem for the economy.
So where’s the silver lining?
Well, the good news is the stock market traditionally recovers before the economy does. It looks as though the market has priced in much of this negative data as well as some of the concerns. We may someday find out that the financial crisis of 2008 provided a huge window of opportunity to purchase quality assets at compellingly low prices. Great investors often make handsome profits when others are distressed and selling assets at foolishly low prices. I believe we are seeing such a time for a couple of reasons:
Take a look at these two statistics:
Home Building: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there about 130 million homes in the U.S. Homes are normally built at a pace that would replace the existing stock of houses every 75 years. In December, home builders started houses at a 550,000 annual rate. At that pace, it would take 236 years to replace all the homes in the U.S. The main reason that housing starts are so low is because an enormous excess inventory must be worked off – which is exactly what must happen for the housing market to recover and get back to normal.
Auto Sales: The Federal Highway Administration suggests that there are about 240 million autos in the U.S. owned by individuals and businesses. The normal replacement rate for auto sales is about 13 years. At the bottom of the recession in 1981-82, autos sold at a 16.3 year replacement rate. Last month, they sold at a 10.3 million annual rate and, at that pace, it would take 23.4 years to replace all the autos in the U.S.
Source: First Trust Advisors
Are we close to an economic boom? I don’t think anyone believes that. However, based on these two areas alone, you can make a case we’re getting closer to a bottom which will set the stage for an economic recovery. The road will still be bumpy, but there is great reason to believe better days are yet to come.

















