<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd"
xmlns:rawvoice="http://www.rawvoice.com/rawvoiceRssModule/"
>

<channel>
	<title>Jay Peroni - Faith Based Investing &#187; Investing</title>
	<atom:link href="http://jayperoni.com/category/investing/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://jayperoni.com</link>
	<description>Faith Based Investing</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:57:51 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.2</generator>
<!-- podcast_generator="Blubrry PowerPress/2.0.2" -->
	<itunes:summary>Faith Based Investing</itunes:summary>
	<itunes:author>Jay Peroni - Faith Based Investing</itunes:author>
	<itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit>
	<itunes:image href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/plugins/powerpress/itunes_default.jpg" />
	<itunes:subtitle>Faith Based Investing</itunes:subtitle>
	<image>
		<title>Jay Peroni - Faith Based Investing &#187; Investing</title>
		<url>http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/plugins/powerpress/rss_default.jpg</url>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/category/investing</link>
	</image>
		<item>
		<title>10 Mistakes That Could Jeopardize Your Financial Future</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/10-mistakes-that-could-jeopardize-your-financial-future</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/10-mistakes-that-could-jeopardize-your-financial-future#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:19:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Faith-Based Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reducing Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reducing Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retirement Planning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3794</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[FREE 88 Page Ebook “10 Mistakes that Could Jeopardize Your Financial Future”: Having success is often related to avoid deadly wealth destroying mistakes.  In this ebook, I share ten of the most common mistakes I have seen people make over the past 16 years of my financial advising career.  Come lean and make sure you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>FREE 88 Page Ebook “10 Mistakes that Could Jeopardize Your Financial Future”:</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/mistake1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3796 alignleft" title="mistake1" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/mistake1-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>Having success is often related to avoid deadly wealth destroying mistakes.  In this ebook, I share ten of the most common mistakes I have seen people make over the past 16 years of my financial advising career.  Come lean and make sure you avoid these mistakes like the plague!</p>
<p>Big Mistake #1: Paying too much $$$ in fees</p>
<p>Big Mistake #2: Getting advice from the wrong places</p>
<p>Big Mistake #3: Choosing the wrong places to store wealth</p>
<p>Big Mistake #4: Failing to plan ahead</p>
<p>Big Mistake #5: Failing to properly account for inflation, taxes, and long-­term health care</p>
<p>Big Mistake #6: Spending more than you make</p>
<p>Big Mistake #7: Failing to properly understand risk</p>
<p>Big Mistake #8: Failing to save regularly</p>
<p>Big Mistake #9: Using debt to consume rather than to conserve</p>
<p>Big Mistake #10: Gambling with your assets instead of investing</p>
<p><strong>Download the ebook here:</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/10-Mistakes-Ebook.pdf">10 Mistakes Ebook</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/10-mistakes-that-could-jeopardize-your-financial-future/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Do You have Concerns About Your Investments Right Now?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/do-you-have-concerns-about-your-investments-right-now</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/do-you-have-concerns-about-your-investments-right-now#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Nov 2011 22:14:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3627</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2011 will not be remembered as a banner year on Wall Street! No silver bullet has emerged to take care of the European Union’s debt problems, and after two strong years for U.S. equities, it appears stocks will make minimal annual gains or finish the year in the red. If your pessimism increased this year, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2><strong>2011 will not be remembered as a banner year on Wall Street!</strong></h2>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/investment_graph.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-3628" title="Let our team help your business to success..." src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/investment_graph.jpg" alt="" width="250" height="167" /></a>No silver bullet has emerged to take care of the European Union’s debt problems, and after two strong years for U.S. equities, it appears stocks will make minimal annual gains or finish the year in the red.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>If your pessimism increased this year, you aren’t alone. This is a very challenging environment, even for fund managers. A recent <em>Wall Street Journal</em> piece referenced that some traders are reluctant to make a decisive move for fear of triggering a big price swing on a particular stock. Liquidity has also been reduced in this market.</p>
<p>While this sounds gloomy, a little perspective is helpful. When it comes to stocks, it is really about the long term.</p>
<p><span id="more-3627"></span></p>
<p><strong>This year hasn’t been a disaster, just a struggle.</strong> The market has seen far worse stretches than this. Looking at CNNMoney’s handy 5-year chart, the S&amp;P 500 lost 24.06% across the years of 2008-09; yet even with all the drama of 2011, the index is still +3.91% since the start of 2010.</p>
<p>On January 14, 2000, the Dow closed at a new all-time high of 11,722.98. On October 9, 2002, it was 37.85% lower after a bear market memorable for a 77.93% decline in the NASDAQ. Yet even in the wake of the dot-com bust and 9/11, the Dow was not crippled. It rose 61% over the next four years to hit a new all-time high of 11,727 on October 3, 2006.</p>
<p>The blue chips have risen and fallen since then, and so have small caps and tech stocks. Yet investors can still made money in bad Wall Street years; no one invests directly in an index, so the potential to beat the market remains.</p>
<p><strong>Comparatively speaking, we’re holding up pretty well.</strong> As we bid goodbye to Thanksgiving weekend, we can be thankful that our stock market is performing better than many others. At the closing bell on November 25, the DJIA was at -2.99% YTD; nearly all the world’s other important stock indices were posting double-digit YTD losses.</p>
<p><strong>How well-diversified is your portfolio?</strong> From 1990-2009, the S&amp;P 500 returned an average of 8.2% annually, yet the typical investor averaged a 3% yearly return. Why? Investors chased performance. They got emotional, responded to headlines, and ignored fundamentals of diversification and patience. They bought at market peaks and bailed out at market lows, and then they waited for that rare “perfect moment” to get back into equities.</p>
<p>Instead of fleeing the market when stocks hit headwinds, the seasoned advisor takes a moment to consult his or her financial professional of choice and adjusts the sails in response while still investing consistently with quality as a key criterion. That approach may help you ride through this year and next and give you a chance to outperform the emotionally-driven investor in the long term.</p>
<p><strong>Do you have concerns about your investments right now?</strong> I’m happy to help you address them. Let’s talk about where you are at right now with your portfolio and the level of progress you are making toward your financial objectives. The more you understand about the long-term behavior and potential of the market, the more you realize the need (and value) of patience and perseverance.</p>
<p>To avoid investment scams give Jay Peroni a call at 866-594-9919 for a free 30 minute portfolio review.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/do-you-have-concerns-about-your-investments-right-now/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Greatest Investment Secret</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/the-greatest-investment-secret</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/the-greatest-investment-secret#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Oct 2011 15:20:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3501</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Asset Allocation will get you 90%+ of your  overall return! I know it&#8217;s not as fun as picking stocks, but most investors fail to take advantage of the greatest investment secret of all time, which is &#8220;how you allocate your assets is far more important than what stocks you pick&#8221;. In any stock market climate, proper [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Asset Allocation will get you 90%+ of your  overall return!</h2>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em><img src="https://origin.ih.constantcontact.com/fs092/1102110388377/img/426.jpg" border="0" alt="" hspace="5" vspace="5" width="202" height="224" align="left" />I know it&#8217;s not as fun as picking stocks, but most investors fail to take advantage of the greatest investment secret of all time, which is &#8220;how you allocate your assets is far more important than what stocks you pick&#8221;. </em></p>
<p><strong>In any stock market climate, proper asset allocation matters</strong>. In a down market, you could argue that it matters more than anything else.</p>
<p>Did you have a well-diversified portfolio during the fall of 2008? That was a time when the importance of having a bond allocation and proper equity diversification really hit home. Nearly all investors were hit hard, but some were hit harder than others. What percentage of your portfolio was held in Treasuries (or cash) at that time?</p>
<p><span id="more-3501"></span></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Wise asset allocation may help you as the market recovers.</strong> Yes, even diversified portfolios lost money at the end of 2008 and the start of 2009. Yet with rebalancing, these same portfolios may be poised to take advantage of a rebounding market.</p>
<p>You might say there are two schools of thought when it comes to diversification and asset allocation &#8211; hands off, and hands on.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Modern Portfolio Theory.</strong> In 1952, a University of Chicago Ph.D. candidate named Harry Markowitz published a thesis &#8211; a brief, provocative paper that called for investors and money managers to see risk with new eyes. That was the start of Modern Portfolio Theory, which still has many advocates today.</p>
<p>Before MPT, money managers and investors tended to look at investments in isolation: if a stock had performed well in 1948, it was a good stock and it would probably perform well in 1949. They analyzed a stock almost like they would analyze a business.</p>
<p>In his paper, Markowitz basically said “You guys are going about this the wrong way.” He first assumed that all investors wanted to avoid risk (which he defined as standard deviation from expected portfolio returns). He then contended that you should measure the risk level of a whole portfolio instead of individual securities.(In other words, if you want to include a security in your portfolio, you should think about how that will alter the risk level of your entire portfolio, rather than simply consider the risk of the security.)</p>
<p>MPT asserts that for every portfolio, there exists an “efficient frontier” &#8211; an ideal asset allocation among diversified asset classes that should efficiently balance maximum return and minimum risk.<sup>2</sup> Markowitz further developed the theory with economists Merton Miller and William Sharpe, and it eventually won a Nobel Prize in economics.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>MPT has its fans &#8211; but also its critics. </strong>In the last 20 years or so, many investment advisors and money managers have practiced a buy-and-hold style of portfolio management using the diversification principles of MPT. But as the markets dropped in 2008-09, critics pointed out the danger of buying and holding &#8211; you can “hold” positions too long. In the crisis, some investment advisors took more of a hands-on approach to portfolio management &#8211; others had always done so.</p>
<p><strong>How long is the long run? </strong>If history is any guide (and it may not be), the longer your investment horizon, the more sense buy-and-hold can make &#8211; at least when it comes to stocks. For example, $1 invested in stocks in 1929 would be worth $759 in 2009, whereas $1 invested in bonds in 1929 would only be worth $74 today. The critics counter that argument with the fact that the S&amp;P 500 traded at the same level in mid-2009 as it did in summer 1997. Stretch or contract different windows of time and you can reach all kinds of conclusions.</p>
<p><strong>The bottom line. </strong>The buy-and-hold adherents and critics certainly agree on one thing: diversification is hugely important. If your assets are allocated across 10 or 12 “baskets” instead of one or two, for example, you are theoretically less affected by the whims of the financial markets.</p>
<p><strong>So what is “proper” asset allocation for you? </strong>Only you and your financial advisor can determine that. Your time horizon, preferred investment style, accumulated assets, life goals and financial objectives &#8211; these all have to be taken into consideration. It’s worth a conversation, today.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Give us a call at 866-594-9919 to discuss your asset allocation! </strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/the-greatest-investment-secret/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Has Wall Street Learned Anything From the Credit Crisis?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/has-wall-street-learned-anything-from-the-credit-crisis</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/has-wall-street-learned-anything-from-the-credit-crisis#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2011 01:34:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3450</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When will Wall Street learn? Memories of 2008 are still fresh: The credit crisis; the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the federal takeover of Fannie and Freddie; the market downturn. There’s little doubt Wall Street would like to erase it all from its conscience, and maybe it has. Part of the anger of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2><strong>When will Wall Street learn?</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Obama-pours-money-on-bank-fire.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-3454" title="Obama-pours-money-on-bank-fire" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Obama-pours-money-on-bank-fire-300x205.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="205" /></a>Memories of 2008 are still fresh: The credit crisis; the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the federal takeover of Fannie and Freddie; the market downturn. There’s little doubt Wall Street would like to erase it all from its conscience, and maybe it has.</p>
<p>Part of the anger of the Occupy Wall Street movement comes from the perception that nothing has changed. While the Dodd-Frank Act (designed to make the financial system more accountable and transparent) is now taking effect, the Volcker Rule (intended to stop banks from trading for their own accounts) may be watered down or put off. Beyond that, the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Recession has sputtered and made people question the recent bullish sentiment.</p>
<p>Stocks have rebounded strongly since 2009, but there are still many factors to worry about; this may lead to a little contrarian thinking.</p>
<p><span id="more-3450"></span></p>
<h2><strong>This bull market may be a diversion from a secular bear market</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong>For most of 2011, the S&amp;P 500 has been above 1,200 (a great rebound from the March 2009 low of 676). What was behind that? The short answer: a weak dollar. We haven’t exactly had a boom economy in that timeframe.</p>
<p>Some analysts look at Wall Street right now and see a rerun of the 1970s, when you had momentous rallies masking a bear market that went from 1967-82. In addition, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco are concerned about the possibility of a generational sell off; a potential market “headwind” for 10 or 20 years stemming from greying Baby Boomers getting out of stocks as they get closer to retirement, countered only partly by overseas investment.</p>
<h2><strong>What has changed on Wall Street since 2008?</strong></h2>
<p>Perhaps not much. The general perception that the CEOs of the big investment banks and mortgage companies whose thoughtlessness contributed to the Great Recession met with no real consequence seems to be taking hold, as evidenced by the Occupy Wall Street movement.</p>
<p>By the way, remember the furor directed at risky derivatives trading? In September 2011, the Comptroller of the Currency had recorded an 11% year-over-year increase in derivatives investment in the banking industry. Banks now hold almost $250 trillion of the contracts.</p>
<p>A truly severe punishment of Wall Street would come at a dear price for Washington. Some of the biggest names from Wall Street (and the real estate sector) have also been major lobbyists and campaign contributors. According to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, the National Association of Realtors has contributed more than $40 million to federal-level political campaigns since 1989; Goldman Sachs has contributed almost $36 million since then, and Citigroup nearly $29 million. The financial, insurance and real estate industries have collectively spent over $4.6 billion in lobbying efforts since 1998.<strong> </strong></p>
<h2><strong>What is happening with the recovery? </strong></h2>
<p>Not much. While<strong> </strong>unemployment is above 9%, underemployment is the real story – in September, 16.5% of Americans worked less than 40 hours a week. No wonder homes sit on the market and consumer spending increases mostly in response to rising food and energy prices. Wages even retreated 0.2% in September and incomes fell 0.1% &#8211; the first monthly decrease in income since October 2009. Assorted 2012 forecasts see slow or slowing growth in various European and Asian nations.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Is there a bright side for Wall Street?</strong> Actually, there could be. The European Union is making decisive moves to address its debt crisis. Indicators still show that our economy is growing, not contracting; September was the best month for U.S. retail sales since March. Many analysts think that the Dodd-Frank regulations will discernibly impact the Wall Street mindset. Lastly, the strength and duration of seemingly every major bull market has been questioned by the bears; history may record that a secular bull market began in 2009, after all.</p>
<p>Only time will tell. Over time, the stock market has faced some great challenges – and risen to meet them again and again. This time around, the hope is that Wall Street’s behavior (and behavioral assumptions) won’t sabotage the rally.</p>
<p><em>This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note &#8211; investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The S&amp;P 500 is a market-capitalization weighted index of 500 Large-Cap common stocks traded in the United States on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ.</em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/has-wall-street-learned-anything-from-the-credit-crisis/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Will Will See a Double Dip Recession?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/will-will-see-a-double-dip-recession</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/will-will-see-a-double-dip-recession#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Oct 2011 13:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3422</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This year, assorted economists and journalists have contended that the U.S. is on the edge of a newrecession. Yet recent indicators hint that the economy is doing a bit better than some analysts think.  So will we or will we not double dip? Let&#8217;s take a look a few encouraging statistics: U.S. retail sales were [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This year, assorted economists and journalists have contended that the U.S. is on the edge of a new<a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/may-09-2-251-1024x685.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3423" title="may-09-2-251-1024x685" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/may-09-2-251-1024x685-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a>recession. Yet recent indicators hint that the economy is doing a bit better than some analysts think.  So will we or will we not double dip?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take a look a few encouraging statistics:</p>
<h2><strong>U.S. retail sales were up 1.1% in September</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong>This is the kind of monthly number that you might expect during a typical recession recovery, and it surpassed the +0.7% consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News. Additionally, the Commerce Department revised August retail spending (formerly flat) to +0.3%. The year-over-year numbers in the September report really impress: we see annual gains of 7.9% for overall retail sales, 10.1% for online retailers, 6.9% for the restaurant and nightlife component, 7.6% for clothing shops and 6.5% for home and garden stores.</p>
<p><span id="more-3422"></span></p>
<p>As Credit Suisse economist Jonathan Basile told CNBC.com, “The fear of recession recedes when you see a retail sales report like this.” Basile said he was revising Credit Suisse’s 3Q 2011 GDP forecast for the U.S. north from +2.5% to +2.9%.</p>
<h2><strong>GDP did improve in the second quarter</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong>Real GDP was +0.4% in the first quarter of 2011, but the third and final real GDP estimate for the second quarter from the Bureau of Economic Analysis was +1.3%.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>“As of today, the recovery is still underway,” Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett commented at an October 4 <em>Fortune</em> Magazine conference. “Our railroad carried 200,000 carloads last week,” he said, referring to the Burlington Northern Santa Fe company. “That’s the highest total in three years. And that’s stuff moving around the country, supplying merchants and doing all kinds of things.”</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Other signs of growth &amp; stability can be seen.</strong> Here in October 2011, many corporations appear to be in better shape: U.S. non-financial firms have $15 trillion of potentially liquid cash or investments on hand compared to $13.7 trillion a year ago. American residential investment spending is up by $9 billion since a low-water mark last spring; existing home sales rose 7.7% in August and the backlog of homes for sale fell to an 8.5-month supply from the previous 9.5-month inventory. The Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indexes still show ongoing sector expansion; the service sector has grown for 22 months.</p>
<p>The continued vitality in consumer spending and other encouraging factors points to a recovery. It may seem unimpressive or frustrating, but it doesn’t indicate a recession.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/will-will-see-a-double-dip-recession/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Will We See a 4th Quarter Stock Market Rally?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/will-we-see-a-4th-quarter-stock-market-rally</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/will-we-see-a-4th-quarter-stock-market-rally#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2011 13:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3408</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is a rally ahead? You may have heard that stocks tend to do well in the fourth quarter. History affirms that perception: while past performance is no guarantee of future results, the last quarter of the year has historically been the best quarter of the year for U.S. equities. As data from Bespoke Investment Group [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2><strong>Is a rally ahead?</strong></h2>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2009-04-04-Stock-markets-rally-600.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3409" title="2009-04-04-Stock-markets-rally-600" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2009-04-04-Stock-markets-rally-600-300x193.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="193" /></a>You may have heard that stocks tend to do well in the fourth quarter. History affirms that perception: while past performance is no guarantee of future results, the last quarter of the year has historically been the best quarter of the year for U.S. equities. As data from Bespoke Investment Group notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has averaged a +2.44% performance in fourth quarters since 1928.</li>
<li>In the last 20 years, it has averaged +4.57% in fourth quarters.</li>
<li>In the last 30 years, it has advanced in 24 of 30 fourth quarters with an average price return of better than 7%.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Will the Street put its anxieties aside?</strong> Right now, you have a lot of uncertainty. Many analysts see a stock market unimpressed by tepid domestic growth and waiting fearfully for the other shoe to drop (meaning Greece).They see more pain ahead for U.S. investors. On the other hand, there is also talk of when a point of capitulation might be reached, i.e., is Wall Street simply ready to rally even in the face of the debt troubles in Europe and the slow recovery here.</p>
<p><span id="more-3408"></span></p>
<p>You could argue that certain Wall Street psychologies (and tensions) aid 4Q rallies. After all, the pay of money managers relates to performance and there is renewed pressure on them to come through as the end of a year looms.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<h2><strong>Could new optimism surface?</strong></h2>
<p>Perhaps it is surfacing now. As the third quarter wrapped up, Reuters polled 350 stock market analysts worldwide. Their consensus forecast was that 18 of 19 major world stock indices would either advance or suffer insignificant losses in the fourth quarter (Taiwan’s TAIEX was the lone exception in the forecast).</p>
<p>They also felt that two indices would achieve 2011 gains: South Korea’s Kospi, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They think the Dow will end 2011 up about 2%. The Dow was at -5.74% YTD at the closing bell on September 30.</p>
<p>On a particularly bullish note, Bloomberg surveyed 12 Wall Street strategists in early October and found them collectively forecasting the greatest 4Q rally in 13 years. They think that the S&amp;P 500 will rise 15% this quarter, which would mean a push to 1,300 by New Year’s Day.</p>
<p><strong>Stocks certainly are cheap.</strong> Bloomberg data also indicated that when the S&amp;P nearly closed at bear market levels in early October, it was down to 12x reported earnings; valuations were lower than they had been at any point since 2009. At the end of September, the MSCI World Index was trading at just above 10x its 12-month forward earnings, well under its average of 14.3x earnings since 2001.</p>
<p><strong>Some analysts are optimistic about the coming quarters.</strong> Indeed, the 350 analysts surveyed by Reuters are envisioning some impressive bull runs. They think Russia’s RTSI will advance 32% between now and mid-2012; they feel Brazil’s Bovespa will rise approximately as much in the next three quarters. If you follow emerging markets, forecasts like these may not surprise you much. However, they also see double-digit advances for the Dow, Nikkei 225, All Ordinaries, CAC 40 and DAX by mid-2012.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Historically, stocks have had impressive resilience.</strong> Here are two other encouraging statistics in the wake of the Dow and S&amp;P’s double-digit third quarter drops:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Dow had 14 quarterly losses of 10% or more in the period from 1962-2009. In 79% of the ensuing quarters, the Dow pulled off a quarterly gain.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P suffered 11 quarterly losses of 10% or more during a stretch from 1981-2009. In 80% of the following quarters, it posted a quarterly gain.</li>
</ul>
<p><sup> </sup></p>
<p>Another 4Q rally depends on many variables, but if Greece avoids default and 3Q earnings don’t disappoint, we might see a better end to 2011 than the bears anticipate.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/will-we-see-a-4th-quarter-stock-market-rally/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Will Greece Impact Your Portfolio?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/how-will-greece-impact-your-portfolio</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/how-will-greece-impact-your-portfolio#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2011 14:50:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Destroying Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3370</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[HOW does Greece impact me? Is it all negative, or are there opportunities to consider because of the crisis? Many economists think a Greek default is inevitable. As we enter 4Q 2011, Greece has a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 160% (and that percentage is rising). While Greece accounts for less than 3% of Eurozone GDP, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2><strong>HOW does Greece impact me?</strong></h2>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em>Is it all negative, or are there opportunities to consider because of the crisis?</em></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/426-greece-126761526381949300.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-3371" title="426-greece--126761526381949300" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/426-greece-126761526381949300-300x219.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="219" /></a>Many economists think a Greek default is inevitable. As we enter 4Q 2011, Greece has a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 160% (and that percentage is rising). While Greece accounts for less than 3% of Eurozone GDP, ripples from a Greek default could strain the European banking sector and global financial markets.</p>
<p><strong>Struggling for the best worst-case scenario.</strong> Greece is redoing its financial system, but it is still facing one of five potential (and painful) outcomes.</p>
<p><span id="more-3370"></span></p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Greece renegotiates its      debts &amp; forces its lenders into write-offs.</strong> Many Greek banks are nationalized;      Greece endures a long recession.</li>
<li><strong>Greece can’t renegotiate      its debts.</strong> It sinks      into a multi-year depression exacerbated by additional austerity measures.</li>
<li><strong>Greece rejects further      austerity cuts recommended by the EU.</strong> A standoff with the International Monetary Fund and      European Central Bank results; the ECB and IMF blink and continue bailout      payments to Greece; Italy and Spain see the way Greece made the ECB and      IMF cave in and later wrestle the ECB and IMF into submission in the same      way; Germany gets frustrated with all this and ditches the euro.</li>
<li><strong>Greece rejects more      austerity cuts &amp; the EU stops bailout payments.</strong> Civil unrest jeopardizes the country.      Its banks close; its public services halt. The CIA has advised that a coup      may occur in Greece in such a scenario.</li>
<li><strong>Greece lapses into a      banking/cash flow crisis &amp; leaves the euro.</strong> This is the “doomsday” scenario.      Assume #4 occurs with Greece also electing to go back to the drachma. That      could mean a run on Greek banks, and then Spanish and Italian banks. A      return to the drachma could mean frozen borrowing for Italy and Spain and      possibly lead to insolvency for major banks in Europe. Picture 17 nations      trying to agree on and quickly implement an EU version of TARP. Havoc      could result for stocks and the global economy.</li>
</ol>
<p>This all sounds very gloomy, but prospects may emerge from the gloom.</p>
<p><strong>A(nother) golden opportunity? </strong>In the event Greece defaults, the search for safe havens could mean a quick flight to gold. If a Greek bailout succeeds, there may still be fiscal instability among EU members, and presumably an easy monetary policy fostering loose credit. If Greece defaults, then you could see big drops in the spot prices of currencies plus some competitive devaluation. All of this could make gold look very, very good.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if true systemic risk hits global markets, investment banks and hedge funds might need capital fast – and gold is easily liquidated. So a gold selloff could also possibly occur if the situation becomes dire.</p>
<p><strong>What about Treasuries &amp; the dollar?</strong> Treasuries remain popular, and demand for them could jump after a Greek default. What other choices do central banks have if they want to shop around for a stable, readily available, reasonably liquid investment? The euro is hardly a rival to the greenback right now.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>How about emerging markets?</strong> Here is another option. The BRICs and some of the other emerging-market nations have managed to ride out the recent volatility fairly well – there has been some “decoupling”, if you will.<span style="font-size: small;"><span> </span></span>No one is saying these markets would be immune from a continental banking crisis or a flight from stocks, but you have to concede that emerging markets have the capability for independent behavior.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Would it still be worthwhile to own blue chips?</strong> Keep in mind that the Dow did not fall to 4,000 after the Lehman Bros. and Washington Mutual failures and the initial rejection of TARP by Congress. Stocks did pull out of that plunge, and spectacularly so; bargains abounded, for that matter. So it might certainly be worthwhile to hold onto stocks in the coming months, especially as some European governments have hinted at possible capital injections for banks if the need arises. On September 13, German chancellor Angela Merkel noted that the EU would not let Greece fall into “uncontrolled insolvency” and reports surfaced of China getting ready to purchase Greek debt. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner even got involved in the search for solutions in mid-September.</p>
<p>Europe’s biggest private lenders may be deemed “too big to fail” by the EU and ECB, and if unwinding of any financial institutions is needed, the authorities should do everything within their reach to try and make it gradual.</p>
<p>It could be that Wall Street has already priced in a Greek default and will just wince, not stumble, at its confirmation – assuming the news arrives with more inevitability than frenzy.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>The biggest fear of all: contagion.</strong> Italy and Spain may be “too big to fail” in the eyes of the EU and IMF, but they also face big debt problems. Standard &amp; Poor’s cut Italy’s credit rating to ‘A’ in September; Moody’s Investors Service is weighing downgrades for Italy and Spain before November.</p>
<p><strong>How diversified are you? </strong>These debt issues in Europe may linger for years.<strong> </strong>With the market so volatile, don’t forget the wisdom of having a diversely allocated portfolio.</p>
<p><em>This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please note &#8211; investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the NYSE and the NASDAQ.</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/how-will-greece-impact-your-portfolio/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>2012 Financial Planning To-Do List</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/2012-financial-planning-to-do-list</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/2012-financial-planning-to-do-list#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2011 14:53:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Creating Income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Destroying Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[YOUR ANNUAL FINANCIAL TO-DO LIST Things you can do before and for the New Year.  Your list may be long, but get started today! The end of the year is a good time to review your personal finances. What are your financial, business or life priorities for 2012? Try to specify the goals you want [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>YOUR ANNUAL FINANCIAL TO-DO LIST</strong></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em>Things you can do before and for the New Year.  Your list may be long, but get started today!</em></p>
<p><em><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/3198229212_3625276d08.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-3374" title="3198229212_3625276d08" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/3198229212_3625276d08-298x300.jpg" alt="" width="298" height="300" /></a></em></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>The end of the year is a good time to review your personal finances.</strong> What are your financial, business or life priorities for 2012? Try to specify the goals you want to accomplish. Think about the consistent investing, saving or budgeting methods you could use to realize them. Also, consider these year-end moves.</p>
<p><strong>Think about adjusting or timing your income and tax deductions. </strong>If you earn a lot of money and have the option of postponing a portion of the taxable income you will make in 2011 until 2012, this decision can bring you some tax savings. You might also consider accelerating payment of deductible expenses if you are close to the line on itemized deductions – another way to potentially save some bucks.</p>
<p><strong>Think about putting more in your 401(k) or 403(b).</strong> The IRS hasn’t announced the contribution limit for 2012 yet. Given the moderate inflation of late, we might see the annual limit rise to $17,000 from the present $16,500, or not. In 2011, you can contribute up to $16,500 per year to these accounts with a $5,500 catch-up contribution also allowed if you are age 50 or older. Has your 2011 contribution reached the annual limit? There is still time to put more into your employer-sponsored retirement plan.</p>
<p><span id="more-3373"></span></p>
<p><strong>Can you max out your IRA contribution at the start of 2012?</strong> If you can do it, do it early &#8211; the sooner you make your contribution, the more interest those assets will earn. (If you haven’t yet made your 2011 IRA contribution, you can still do so through April 17, 2012.)</p>
<p>We don’t yet know if the 2012 contribution limits on traditional and Roth IRAs will rise from 2011 levels. If the IRS leaves limits where they are now, you will be able to contribute up to $5,000 to your IRA next year if you are age 49 or younger, and up to $6,000 if you are age 50 and older.</p>
<p><sup> </sup></p>
<p><strong>Should you go Roth between now and the end of 2012?</strong> While you can no longer divide the income from a Roth IRA conversion across two years of federal tax returns, converting a traditional IRA into a Roth before 2013 may make sense for another reason: federal taxes might be higher in 2013. Congress extended the Bush-era tax cuts through the end of 2012; their sunset may not be delayed any further.</p>
<p><sup> </sup></p>
<p>Some MAGI phase-out limits affect Roth IRA contributions. If the phase-out limits aren’t adjusted north for 2012, phase-outs will kick in at $169,000 for joint filers and $107,000 for single filers. Should your MAGI exceed those limits, you still have a chance to contribute to a traditional IRA in 2012 and then roll those IRA assets over into a Roth.</p>
<p>Consult a tax or financial professional before you make any IRA moves. You will want see how it may affect your overall financial picture. The tax consequences of a Roth conversion can get sticky if you own multiple traditional IRAs.</p>
<p><strong>If you are retired and older than 70½, don’t forget an RMD.</strong> Retirees over age 70½ must take Required Minimum Distributions from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s by December 31, 2012. Remember that the IRS penalty for failing to take an RMD equals 50% of the RMD amount.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p>If you have turned or will turn 70½ in 2011, you can postpone your first IRA RMD until April 1, 2012. The downside of that is that you will have to take two IRA RMDs next year, both taxable events – you will have to make your 2011 tax year withdrawal by April 1, 2012 and your 2012 tax year withdrawal by December 31, 2012.</p>
<p>Plan your RMDs wisely. If you do so, you may end up limiting or avoiding possible taxes on your Social Security income. Some Social Security recipients don’t know about the “provisional income” rule – if your modified AGI plus 50% of your Social Security benefits surpasses a certain level, then a portion of your Social Security benefits become taxable. For tax year 2011, Social Security benefits start to be taxed at provisional income levels of $32,000 for joint filers and $25,000 for single filers.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Consider the tax impact of any 2011 transactions. </strong>Did you sell any real property this year – or do you plan to before the year ends? Did you start a business? Are you thinking about exercising a stock option? Could any large commissions or bonuses come your way before the end of the year? Did you sell an investment that was held outside of a tax-deferred account? Any of these moves might have a big impact on your taxes.<strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>You may wish to make a charitable gift before New Year’s Day.</strong> Make a charitable contribution this year and you can claim the deduction on your 2011 return.</p>
<p><strong>You could make December the “13th month”. </strong>Can you make a January mortgage payment in December, or make a lump sum payment on your mortgage balance? If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, a lump sum payment can reduce the home loan amount and the total interest paid on the loan by that much more. In a sense, paying down a debt is almost like getting a risk-free return.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Are you marrying next year, or do you know someone who is? </strong>The top of 2012 is a good time to review (and possibly change) beneficiaries to your 401(k) or 403(b) account, your IRA, your insurance policy and other assets. You may want to change beneficiaries in your will. It is also wise to take a look at your insurance coverage. If your last name is changing, you will need a new Social Security card. Lastly, assess your debts and the merits of your existing financial plans.</p>
<p><strong>Are you returning from active duty? </strong>If so, go ahead and check the status of your credit, and the state of any tax and legal proceedings that might have been preempted by your orders. Review the status of your employee health insurance, and revoke any power of attorney you may have granted to another person.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Don’t delay – get it done.</strong> Talk with a qualified financial or tax professional today, so you can focus on being healthy and wealthy in the New Year.  Give us a call today at 866-594-9919 if we can help you plan!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/2012-financial-planning-to-do-list/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>7 Financial Mistakes Married Women Make</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/7-financial-mistakes-married-women-make</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/7-financial-mistakes-married-women-make#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Sep 2011 13:45:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Creating Income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Destroying Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retirement Planning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3360</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Where&#8217;s that &#8220;oops button&#8221;? A recent survey found that over 60% of women feel they are better at handling money than men are. However, married women sometimes find themselves in perplexing financial situations – conditions that might be avoided with a little planning and/or foresight. With vigilance, you can plan to steer clear of these [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Where&#8217;s that &#8220;oops button&#8221;?</h2>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/images1.jpeg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-3361" title="images" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/images1.jpeg" alt="" width="275" height="183" /></a>A recent survey found that over 60% of women feel they are better at handling money than men are.<span style="font-size: small;"><span><em> </em></span></span>However, married women sometimes find themselves in perplexing financial situations – conditions that might be avoided with a little planning and/or foresight. With vigilance, you can plan to steer clear of these 7 mistakes.</p>
<h2><strong>1. Not saving enough for retirement after marriage</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong>If your spouse earns a huge salary and has invested avidly, you may have less impetus to save for retirement yourself. Your IRA, 401(k) or 403(b) may start to seem more supplemental than primary. Yet what happens if the relationship ends someday and you personally end up with a retirement savings shortfall? <em>Keep contributing to your own retirement accounts.</em></p>
<h2><strong>2. Dipping into retirement savings once married</strong></h2>
<p><strong> </strong>If your spouse is really wealthy or has much greater net worth than you do, your retirement nest egg may seem minor in comparison. Your spouse may tell you that with all the investments and savings that you collectively possess, you taking a loan out of your 401(k) won’t be that bad. Well, drawing down your own retirement savings could look like a very bad move 20 or 30 years from now. Who knows what changes life could have in store? <em>Resist the temptation to siphon off your retirement savings.</em></p>
<h2><strong>3. Trusting a reckless spouse with your finances</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>When you love someone who is cavalier with money, look out. Beware of ceding financial control or your financial say in such a situation. If you marry someone with severe debt problems, don’t think that you will be financially immune from the effects of those problems. If your spouse is a wastrel or has a terrible credit rating, do not “hand over the keys” to the household finances. <em>Watch what goes on with the bank accounts, investment accounts and credit cards among you– keep communication open and encourage transparency.</em></p>
<h2><strong>4. Forfeiting some or all of your financial identity</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>You may have taken your spouse’s name, but that does not mean you need to give up your own credit card for a shared one, merge your personal checking account into a joint one, and so forth. If you don’t use a credit card for several months or years, you won’t have to pay a fee but it could show up as “inactive” on your credit report. The credit card issuer may move to close the account, and losing the credit history of that card could hurt your credit score. <em>Retain individual savings and investment accounts and individual credit cards.</em></p>
<p><sup> </sup></p>
<h2><strong>5. Divorcing with an “equal” rather than equitable financial settlement</strong></h2>
<p>If a divorce happens, the impulse may be to amicably split things “50/50” … or, the focus may be on keeping custody of your kids or keeping your home with your financial potential a distant second. However, you must keep your financial future in mind.</p>
<p>Quite often, a woman will be instrumental in building a business or professional practice with her spouse – but she may not be a part of that successful company or professional entity after a divorce. If you divorce and have helped your spouse build a business to greater or lesser degree, you may not only find yourself out of work but taking a job that pays less or having to learn new skills to compete in the job market. Your earnings potential and retirement savings potential may be affected. <em>If you should divorce, seek an equitable settlement that considers your future financial potential; this is even more important than retaining material wealth or real property from the marriage.</em></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<h2><strong>6. Losing touch with your career path</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>If you have happily put a career aside to raise kids, keep in mind that you might find yourself returning to work sooner rather than later. Life events, economic necessity, personal desire and growing children may all be factors. Yet a long, total absence from the workplace can make it difficult to step back in – the technology or outlook of any given field can change radically across a few short years. <em>Try to keep a foot (or at least a toe) in your career via consulting or networking efforts.</em></p>
<h2>7.  Not knowing where your accounts are held</h2>
<p>I have met way too many widows who not only did not know where their investment accounts were held, they also were unsure how much if any life insurance was available.   <em> Try to keep a summary document of where all of your accounts are held along with phone numbers. List out life insurance policies, where wills and other estate documents are held, and have a plan in place in the event your spouse goes before you do.</em></p>
<p><strong>The takeaway: You can plan your financial life together, but make sure you have a plan in place to account for these 7 common mistakes.  A little planning can go a long way!   Please call us at 866-594-9919 if we can help you plan! </strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/7-financial-mistakes-married-women-make/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Does Momentum Based Investing Work?</title>
		<link>http://jayperoni.com/does-momentum-based-investing-work</link>
		<comments>http://jayperoni.com/does-momentum-based-investing-work#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Sep 2011 21:46:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jay Peroni</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jayperoni.com/?p=3342</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Doing My Homework Several years ago while studying  the markets and evaluating some &#8220;best ideas&#8221; I started to notice how stocks close to their 52 week highs in strong sectors tended to outperform stocks in weaker sectors that were further away from their yearly highs. It seems like a &#8220;duh!&#8221; moment, but it really was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<h2>Doing My Homework</h2>
<p><a href="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/homework2.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-3351" title="homework2" src="http://jayperoni.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/homework2-288x300.jpg" alt="" width="288" height="300" /></a>Several years ago while studying  the markets and evaluating some &#8220;best ideas&#8221; I started to notice how stocks close to their 52 week highs in strong sectors tended to outperform stocks in weaker sectors that were further away from their yearly highs. It seems like a &#8220;duh!&#8221; moment, but it really was a game changer.</p>
<p>As an investment professional I was always taught &#8220;to  never chase performance&#8221;.  When looking at longer term trends I agree (especially with mutual funds) that past performance is no indication of future results.  I find that looking at the long-term track record of a mutual fund over the past 3, 5, and 10 years is no more helpful then throwing a dart against a list and selecting mutual funds that way.</p>
<p><span id="more-3342"></span></p>
<p>Yet with individual stocks, many companies in rising sectors tend to outperform those in fading sectors.  You could select a great company but if it&#8217;s in a sector (like financial) that is out of favor, that stock may go down with the rest of the sector.  Kind of like &#8220;right church, wrong pew!&#8221;  Likewise I found you may be able to find junky stocks in a rising sector and you could gain simply by being in the right sector.   What if you could find quality companies in rising sectors?  Wouldn&#8217;t that be the best of both worlds?</p>
<h2>The best of both worlds?</h2>
<p>Based on these findings, I decided to put a momentum based strategy to the test.  I essentially wanted to find out if  &#8221;momentum based investing&#8221; really worked.  When I backtested this strategy, wow the results were impressive, but would this strategy work with real money?  In order to find out, I needed to build a real life portfolio based on my hypothesis.</p>
<p>Momentum based investing generally looks at:</p>
<ul>
<li>momentum of price (relative strength)</li>
<li>momentum of earnings (increasing earnings per share)</li>
</ul>
<p>It is usually done &#8220;either/or&#8221; as most momentum systems choose either price or earnings.  Because I believe earnings impact price as proven by <a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks</a>, I was willing to include BOTH price and earnings in the building of our models.   As I began to include both as a measure of inclusion, I found a smaller list of stocks to follow.</p>
<p>I started with over 8,000 public traded companies and narrowed this list down to about 600 companies.  These 600 companies later became known as the &#8220;<a href="http://jayperoni.com/how-do-you-find-a-proud-to-own-company">Proud to Own</a>&#8221; list.  Then after having a manageable list of 600 companies, I wanted to find the best momentum plays.  I also wanted diversification. I have found that 20 companies will provide enough diversification without becoming &#8220;too diversified&#8221; and losing out on the true benefits of the strategy.</p>
<h2>The Birth of  the Dueling Duo</h2>
<p>After all this research, it was time to set up a portfolio.  This involved using several third party investment analysis tools that would provide me data on price history, earnings momentum, P/E ratios, sector breakdowns, balance sheet analysis, and trading volumes (to name a few)&#8230;</p>
<p>This was the birth of our Dueling Duo strategy at <a href="http://www.faithbasedinvestor.com">Faith-Based Investor</a>.  Using this method helped us find Deckers Outdoors (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=deck&amp;ql=1">DECK</a>), Neogen Corp. (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=neog&amp;ql=1">NEOG</a>) , and National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nov&amp;ql=1">NOV</a>)  back in 2009.  All of which have doubled or tripled in value.</p>
<p>It helped us find companies like Panera Bread Co.  (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pnra&amp;ql=1">PNRA</a>)  and Eldorado Gold (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ego&amp;ql=1">EGO</a>), and  Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ftnt&amp;ql=1">FTNT</a>) in 2010, all up 25 to 50+% .  In 2011, during these trying times, it has helped us weather the storm.  Despite a down market we continue to find winners like our most recent selection IAMGold Inc (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=iag&amp;ql=1">IAG</a>)  and  June&#8217;s selection W.W. Grainger (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gww&amp;ql=1">GWW</a>). Both are up more than 5% this year  (as of 9- 7-11) not bad considering the markets are down for the year!</p>
<p>Of course not all our selections are winners, but using this strategy for our <a href="http://www.faithbasedinvestor.com/vip-membership/membership-benefits">Rethink Wealth Newsletter</a> has netted over 115% in total gains since the portfolio&#8217;s newsletter inception back in January of 2009*.</p>
<h2>How the strategy works</h2>
<p>The strategy starts with 20 stocks.  Each month, we rank our top 20 investment ideas based on their momentum characteristics.   The two weakest stocks are removed and two new higher ranked stocks are added to the mix.  You can follow along at home via our paid newsletter or contact us a <a href="http://www.faithbasedinvestor.com">Faith-Based Investor</a> at 866-594-9919 to discuss portfolio management options.</p>
<p><strong>* Key Disclosure:</strong></p>
<p><em>The Rethink Wealth™ Newsletter is strictly an informational publication and is not intended to provide individual, customized investment or trading advice to its subscribers. Although many of our analytical approaches are unique, they are based on publicly available data; and although analysts may visit specific sites, companies or countries to gain a more objective on-the ground perspective regarding specific investment opportunities, they do not seek or accept data that’s not available to the public. The money you allocate to speculative trading should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. While every effort is made to simulate the actual experience of subscribers, all performance figures must be considered hypothetical. References to examples of past performance are not intended to provide a total picture of portfolio results, and past results are no guarantee of future performance.</em></p>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://jayperoni.com/does-momentum-based-investing-work/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

